From: =?windows-1250?Q?Ulo=9Eeno_v_aplikaci_Windows_Internet_Explorer_8?= Subject: Dr. Chris Landsea Leaves the IPCC | The SPPI Blog Date: Wed, 25 May 2011 19:13:22 +0200 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01CC1B0F.D0961D60" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.0.6001.18483 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01CC1B0F.D0961D60 Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://sppiblog.org/news/dr-chris-landsea-leaves-the-ipcc =EF=BB=BF Dr. Chris Landsea Leaves the = IPCC | The SPPI Blog <= LINK=20 id=3Dcontact-form-7-css rel=3Dstylesheet type=3Dtext/css=20 href=3D"http://sppiblog.org/wp-content/plugins/contact-form-7/styles.css?= ver=3D2.4.2"=20 media=3Dall>

Dr. Chris Landsea Leaves the IPCC

by Robert Ferguson

We are often asked for references to the open letter Dr. Chris = Landsea=20 released outlining his reasons for withdrawing from the IPCC = process.  It=20 is posted below.

This is an open letter to the community from Ch= ris=20 Landsea.

January 17, 2005

Dear colleagues,

After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from=20 participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental = Panel on=20 Climate Change (IPCC). I am withdrawing because I have come to view the = part of=20 the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become politicized. = In=20 addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership, their = response=20 was simply to dismiss my concerns.

With this open letter to the community, I wish to explain the basis = for my=20 decision and bring awareness to what I view as a problem in the IPCC = process.=20 The IPCC is a group of climate researchers from around the world that = every few=20 years summarize how climate is changing and how it may be altered in the = future=20 due to manmade global warming. I had served both as an author for the=20 Observations chapter and a Reviewer for the 2nd Assessment Report in = 1995 and=20 the 3rd Assessment Report in 2001, primarily on the topic of tropical = cyclones=20 (hurricanes and typhoons). My work on hurricanes, and tropical cyclones = more=20 generally, has been widely cited by the IPCC. For the upcoming AR4, I = was asked=20 several weeks ago by the Observations chapter Lead Author =E2=80=93 Dr. = Kevin Trenberth=20 =E2=80=93 to provide the writeup for Atlantic hurricanes. As I had in = the past, I agreed=20 to assist the IPCC in what I thought was to be an important, and=20 politically-neutral determination of what is happening with our = climate.

Shortly after Dr. Trenberth requested that I draft the Atlantic = hurricane=20 section for the AR4=E2=80=B2s Observations chapter, Dr. Trenberth = participated in a=20 press conference organized by scientists at Harvard on the topic = =E2=80=9CExperts to=20 warn global warming likely to continue spurring more outbreaks of = intense=20 hurricane activity=E2=80=9D along with other media interviews on the = topic. The result=20 of this media interaction was widespread coverage that directly = connected the=20 very busy 2004 Atlantic hurricane season as being caused by = anthropogenic=20 greenhouse gas warming occurring today. Listening to and reading = transcripts of=20 this press conference and media interviews, it is apparent that Dr. = Trenberth=20 was being accurately quoted and summarized in such statements and was = not being=20 misrepresented in the media. These media sessions have potential to = result in a=20 widespread perception that global warming has made recent hurricane = activity=20 much more severe.

I found it a bit perplexing that the participants in the Harvard = press=20 conference had come to the conclusion that global warming was impacting=20 hurricane activity today. To my knowledge, none of the participants in = that=20 press conference had performed any research on hurricane variability, = nor were=20 they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current = research=20 in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term = trend up=20 in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the = Atlantic or=20 any other basin. The IPCC assessments in 1995 and 2001 also concluded = that there=20 was no global warming signal found in the hurricane record.

Moreover, the evidence is quite strong and supported by the most = recent=20 credible studies that any impact in the future from global warming upon=20 hurricane will likely be quite small. The latest results from the = Geophysical=20 Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Knutson and Tuleya, Journal of Climate, 2004) = suggest=20 that by around 2080, hurricanes may have winds and rainfall about 5% = more=20 intense than today. It has been proposed that even this tiny change may = be an=20 exaggeration as to what may happen by the end of the 21st Century = (Michaels,=20 Knappenberger, and Landsea, Journal of Climate, 2005, submitted).

It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an=20 unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global = warming. Given Dr. Trenberth=E2=80=99s role as the IPCC=E2=80=99s Lead = Author responsible for=20 preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements so far outside = of=20 current scientific understanding led me to concern that it would be very = difficult for the IPCC process to proceed objectively with regards to = the=20 assessment on hurricane activity. My view is that when people identify=20 themselves as being associated with the IPCC and then make = pronouncements far=20 outside current scientific understandings that this will harm the = credibility of=20 climate change science and will in the longer term diminish our role in = public=20 policy.

My concerns go beyond the actions of Dr. Trenberth and his colleagues = to how=20 he and other IPCC officials responded to my concerns. I did caution Dr.=20 Trenberth before the media event and provided him a summary of the = current=20 understanding within the hurricane research community. I was = disappointed when=20 the IPCC leadership dismissed my concerns when I brought up the=20 misrepresentation of climate science while invoking the authority of the = IPCC.=20 Specifically, the IPCC leadership said that Dr. Trenberth was speaking = as an=20 individual even though he was introduced in the press conference as an = IPCC lead=20 author; I was told that the media was exaggerating or misrepresenting = his words,=20 even though the audio from the press conference and interview tells a = different=20 story (available on the web directly); and that Dr. Trenberth was = accurately=20 reflecting conclusions from the TAR, even though it is quite clear that = the TAR=20 stated that there was no connection between global warming and hurricane = activity. The IPCC leadership saw nothing to be concerned with in Dr.=20 Trenberth=E2=80=99s unfounded pronouncements to the media, despite his = supposedly=20 impartial important role that he must undertake as a Lead Author on the = upcoming=20 AR4.

It is certainly true that =E2=80=9Cindividual scientists can do what = they wish in=20 their own rights=E2=80=9D, as one of the folks in the IPCC leadership = suggested.=20 Differing conclusions and robust debates are certainly crucial to = progress in=20 climate science. However, this case is not an honest scientific = discussion=20 conducted at a meeting of climate researchers. Instead, a scientist with = an=20 important role in the IPCC represented himself as a Lead Author for the = IPCC has=20 used that position to promulgate to the media and general public his own = opinion=20 that the busy 2004 hurricane season was caused by global warming, which = is in=20 direct opposition to research written in the field and is counter to = conclusions=20 in the TAR. This becomes problematic when I am then asked to provide the = draft=20 about observed hurricane activity variations for the AR4 with, = ironically, Dr.=20 Trenberth as the Lead Author for this chapter. Because of Dr. = Trenberth=E2=80=99s=20 pronouncements, the IPCC process on our assessment of these crucial = extreme=20 events in our climate system has been subverted and compromised, its = neutrality=20 lost. While no one can =E2=80=9Ctell=E2=80=9D scientists what to say or = not say (nor am I=20 suggesting that), the IPCC did select Dr. Trenberth as a Lead Author and = entrusted to him to carry out this duty in a non-biased, neutral point = of view.=20 When scientists hold press conferences and speak with the media, much = care is=20 needed not to reflect poorly upon the IPCC. It is of more than passing = interest=20 to note that Dr. Trenberth, while eager to share his views on global = warming and=20 hurricanes with the media, declined to do so at the Climate Variability = and=20 Change Conference in January where he made several presentations. = Perhaps he was=20 concerned that such speculation =E2=80=93 though worthy in his mind of = public=20 pronouncements =E2=80=93 would not stand up to the scrutiny of fellow = climate=20 scientists.

I personally cannot in good faith continue to contribute to a process = that I=20 view as both being motivated by pre-conceived agendas and being = scientifically=20 unsound. As the IPCC leadership has seen no wrong in Dr. = Trenberth=E2=80=99s actions and=20 have retained him as a Lead Author for the AR4, I have decided to no = longer=20 participate in the IPCC AR4.

Sincerely, Chris Landsea

Attached are the correspondence between myself and key members of the = IPCC=20 FAR, Download=20 file.

Share and Enjoy:

Tags: Chris=20 Landsea, Fourth Assessment Report, Hurricane = science,=20 IPCC, Kevin = Trenberth

=20

=C2=A9 2011 The SPPI Blog | Created by Sire=20 Studios Inc.

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